PA-PIPE Model Overview
Models results are only estimations of the true description or quantification of any physical phenomena. As such, they are subject to uncertainties due to these problems and the mathematical formulations and formats used to process data and to create the information and/or products, and due to the choice of spatial and temporal scales to dimensionally define the information and/or products. Because of these inherent uncertainties, users are strongly advised to use model results for guidance only and to use any derivative products based on models with other information before making a decision.
The models accessible through this website are designed to provide users with dynamic, geospatial information, in the form of landscape maps, about phenomena that are important for agricultural decision making. The landscape maps are considered to be derivative products of models. Each model executes a set of simulations that use both weather observations and one-to-seven-day daily forecasts as input. The daily forecast simulations or model results are identified in the navigation calendar as a darker shade of blue.
The information in each landscape map is presented at a 6 kilometer (3.7 mile) spatial resolution and a one day temporal resolution. The information in each grid should be interpreted as an average or representative value for all possible areas within a grid. As such, there is an inherent spatial uncertainty associated with grid values that has not been quantified for the user. The user should always be aware that a sub-grid point will differ from the average or representative value depicted in a map. Besides the issue of resolution, it is important to remember that the quality of the information presented in a landscape map is only as good as the quality of the input weather data, particularly forecasts. This weather uncertainty only adds to the overall uncertainty when interpreting a grid value for some location or decision.
The benefit of presenting information on some phenomenon as a landscape map is that a user can see patterns of change over time and space. For example, a user can focus in on one area and watch as a particular degree-day total or insect stage approaches over time. These changes in values relative to a location allow a user to identify "windows" of opportunity during which to make a decision or take an action.
The following sections provide a brief description of each model under each type. The user is encouraged to provide feedback on the performance of any of the models by contacting us.
|Crop Models||Disease Models||Insect Models|
|Weather Models||Weed Models|